The US Economy on Halloween - not as scary as you think
It’s that most scary of days and nights in our annual calendar, Halloween. There are lots of households in my neighborhood who get into this in a big way. I have seen lots of orange lights, fake spider webs, and simulated grave sites popping up all over the place. I am not immune, either, as I sit here typing away while wearing skeleton earrings, my Halloween vest and glow-in-the-dark socks.
We all get to be kids today, to whatever degree we choose. I am ready for the fairly small crowd of Trick or Treaters we get each year, with a stock of candy (in some of my favorites varieties, of course – I’m weak when it comes to candy). I’ll have to make sure I have batteries in the camera, too. The children and their costumes always tickle me.
However, when I look at business, it seems to me that there is more darkness and gloom and doom than is warranted. I get regular news alerts from the Wall Street Journal. Today, I got the following:
“Oct. 31, 2007
The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.9% in the third quarter, the fastest pace in 1 1/2 years, the Commerce Department said, as surging exports and stronger consumer spending helped counterbalance the weakening housing sector. The gross domestic product report suggests that the economy is thus far holding up well to the strains in the housing and credit markets, which had intensified during the third quarter.”
In spite of the so-called mortgage meltdown, our US economy is holding up fairly well. I looked at the entire article in the WSJ and found the writer to be balanced, citing both good and bad news. However, the overall assessment was pretty decent. Here are a couple of samples:
“Most economists expect growth to slow through the end of this year and into next year, as the fallout from a deteriorating housing market, higher oil prices and credit-market woes continue. … Still, most forecasters expect the U.S. to dodge a recession.”
“The latest employment report from payroll firm Automatic Data Processing suggests that the government’s monthly jobs report will show a gain of some 125,000 jobs in October, a gain over previous months. And inflation appears to be contained, with the price index for consumer expenditures — excluding food and energy — rising 1.8% in the third quarter versus 1.4% in the second.”
In the State of Washington, our unemployment rate rose very slightly, to 4.2% from 3.9% if I remember correctly, but that is still so low as to be close to full employment.
So, why the general doom and gloom? Well, in my opinion, some of it comes from the mainstream media who demonstrate two problems with the economy. First, they work on the principal of “If it bleeds, it leads.” So they almost always report the bad news, or the cautious news as bad news. Second, there are very few who understand business or economics. Third, the reporting in the daily paper and in evening newscasts, unfortunately the primary source for too many citizens, is incredibly shallow. It rarely delves even a fraction of an inch below the surface headline.
The other source for gloom is simply emotion and the perception by regular folk, gleaned from what they absorb from the information swirling around them, that things aren’t great. Not everyone takes the time to delve behind the headlines. I can’t help but wish the media would, however.